In 2009 Mon Mome won the Grand National at 100/1, Crockford considers this year’s Dark Horses & Outsiders for the National and their chances of a surpise win in the race
A punter’s dream is to find that outsider or dark horse with a live chance of winning at massive odds. Last year Crockford chose Neptune Collonges as lively outsider who went on to win at 33/1. This year he has cast his eye over the longer priced odds and evaluated each of the runners who were 50/1 or more with Stan James Bookmakers (www.stanjames.com) at 7pm on the eve of the 2013 race.
Crockford has graded each of their chances with *. Those with * have no or little chance of being placed, ** have an outside chance of making the places and the dark horses with *** have been overlooked by the bookies & punters and have a live chance of making the places at massive odds.
Harry The Viking – 50/1 * – He hasn’t been able to repeat his form of previous seasons this year and even if he could he probably would not figure.
Quel Esprit – 50/1 *** – A classy grey that can on his day jump for fun. This Mullins horse has slipped under many punters radars and should not have done. Massive price.
Saint Are – 50/1 *** – Loves Aintree and has run his best races at the course. The ground will be in his favour and he may well take to the National obstacles.
Becauseicouldntsee – 66/1 ** – Had an encouraging run at the Cheltenham Festival but he is not in the form he has been in previous years. His best chance may have gone.
Swing Bill – 66/1 ** – This grey has shown a love for the National fences and ran well last year and finished fourth in the Becher Chase over the obstacles in December. He should get round again.
Lost Glory – 66/1 ** – Jonjo O’Neill knows how to train National horses and this could well be a dark horse for the stable but this would be a massive step up in class.
Tatenen – 66/1 * – In recent seasons he has been inconsistent and this looks to be beyond his best trip. One to overlook.
Joncol – 66/1 *** – Once considered a Gold Cup horse. This Grade One winning chaser is another Irish horse that is overlooked by the punters at their peril
Forpadydeplasterer – 66/1 *** – Once a brilliant two miler and a consistently high performer in the past. His class and weight throws him in with a live chance in the National.
Wierd Al – 66/1 ** – This horse lives up to his name. Depending on what horse turns up to the race he could either have a live chance or none. Too risky nowadays to bet on.
What A Friend – 66/1 ** – Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson & partners this once classy horse has a similar profile to last year’s winner, but he does seem to have lost his way a bit of late and has a lot of weight to carry.
Auroras Encore – 80/1 * – Hard to see this horse figuring in the finish.
The Rainbow Hunter – 80/1 * – Some good early season form but has not built on that and will not be making the places.
Oscar Time -80/1 ** – Finished second to Ballabriggs in the 2011 Grand National. This Waley-Cohen family horse has been nursed through his races this season but his best chance of a win may have gone.
Major Malarkey – 100/1 * – Pulled up in heavy ground at Uttoxeter in the Midlands National a few weeks ago. He has little to no chance here either.
Viking Blond – 100/1 ** – A quality stayer who could go well in the National but still may be just outclassed.
Mr Moonshine – 100/1 * – Good performance behind Cape Tribulation on Boxing Day but hasn’t shown much since. One to overlook.
Tarquinius – 100/1 ** – A proven handicaper with a shrewd Grand National winning trainer Gordon Elliott as his master. Big price but probably outclassed in this field.
Ninetieth Minute – 100/1 * * – Coming into form when second behind his stablemate Treacle at Down Royal recently. Big price but probably will not make the places.
Any Currency – 100/1 * – Unseated his rider when last tackling the course and will be too slow to match his rivals.
Mumbles Head – 150/1 * – Peter Bowen his trainer is skilled at training horses to cope with the National fences. This horse has lost his form though and will not figure.
Crockford’s Dark Horses with an each way chance in the Grand National 2013:
QUEL ESPIRIT/SAINT ARE/JONCOL/FORPADYDEPLASTERER
(Featured photograph – Mon Mome at Cheltenham by Stuart Rice)
(First Photograph – Swing Bill by Stuart Rice)
(Second Photograph – The Waley-Cohens at Cheltenham by Stuart Rice)